Off the Cuff #2

On December 12th, Democrat Doug Jones was able to pull off a major upset in the extremely red state of Alabama. He defeated Republican Roy Moore in an Alabama special Senate election, becoming the first Democrat to win a S

enate election in the deeply conservative state in 25 years. The upset delivered an unpredicted victory for Democrats and shaved the Republicans’ unstable Senate majority to a single seat. This major upset was all thanks to Roy Moore, who had been accused of allegations of sexual harassment from many women, leading to a surge of Alabama voters seeing him as unfit to be their Senator. Senator Elect Jones’s victory could have significant consequences on the national level, possibly stopping Republicans’ legislative agenda in Washington and opening a realistic but still difficult path for Democrats to capture the Senate this year.

Although the Roy Moore allegations did help Jones propell to the Ssenate seat, Jones had an effective target campaigning strategy with the right people and places throughout the state. Jones started by campaigning hard towards African-American voters with a huge voter turnout operation, and was then able to appeal to white educated voters who had turned their backs on the Alabama Republican Party due to the allegations with Moore. This campaign paid off as precincts in Birmingham and its suburbs handed Jones overwhelming winning margins. He was also able to pave out a convincing win in Huntsville and other urban centers. The abandonment of Moore by hesitant white Rrepublican voters, along with strong support from black voters, allowed Jones to transcend Alabama’s extreme racial polarization and assemble a winning coalition.

Despite Jones’s effective campaign strategy, the victory really came from Republican-leaning residents who chose to write in the name of a third candidate rather than back one of the two major party nominees. More than 20,000 voters there cast write-in ballots, which amounted to 1.7 percent of the electorate - about the same as Jones’s overall margin of victory. The competitive field of Write-in candidates included Mickey Mouse, Nick Saban, Jesus, Boo Radley, Clint Eastwood and my personal favorite, Tony the Tiger. President Donald Trump reiterated the idea that write-in votes were the greatest impact on the outcome of the election by stating, “Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard fought victory. The write-in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win. The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time.”

On Election night, despite losing by a decently large margin, Moore refused to concede and instructed his crowd to “wait on God and let this process play out.” He then told his supporters that he was going to attempt to get a recount despite needing to be within 0.2% of the popular vote. Unsurprisingly, his request for a recount did not occur, leading to the Jones campaign securing their victory. Democrats can only cross their fingers and hope to keep this momentum going as they attempt to take control of the House and Senate later this year.

Make sure to check out next month’s Off the Cuff, where we will look at the Democrat’s chance with both the Senate and House in 2018. We will also be talking about possible democratic challengers to Donald Trump, including Oprah Winfrey and Joe Biden.